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More →Brazil’s Stock Market Crashes After Lula’s Upset Victory
Brazil’s stock market lost more than $200 billion in value at the open on Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff, a result that prediction markets had priced at roughly a one in five chance. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, a basket of Brazilian stocks that trades in New York like a single share, fell as much as 26% from Friday’s close of about $42.60, touching $31.40 before trimming the loss to about 23% at $32.84 by 10:38 a.m. ET. That is memecoin-sized volatility for a fund built around Brazil’s biggest companies, and it leaves EWZ roughly where it started 2026 after a 34% gain through Friday. The dollar rose as much as 12% against the real on Friday, while the Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell as much as 17% to about 170,000 points. For a dollar-based investor, those moves at their worst combine to a loss of about 26%, in line with the ETF’s low. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10% from Friday’s close, its first circuit breaker since the COVID-19 pandemic. A circuit breaker is an automatic pause meant to slow panic selling, but the index kept sliding after trading resumed. Investors had been positioning for the opposite result since Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The Ibovespa jumped 7.85% the next day and EWZ gained more than 10% on bets that Bolsonaro would tighten public finances and open the way to lower interest rates. Monday’s drop erased that rally and, at its lows, left the Ibovespa about 11% below its Oct. 2 close. But Lula didn’t just beat Bolsonaro, he also beat prediction markets. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an<a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2114003200017575948" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS">> 82% chance</a> of winning the day before the vote, and Kalshi had him near 80% on Sunday morning. Both platforms are<a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS" rel="nofollow"> prediction markets</a>, where a contract that pays $1 if a candidate wins trades at 80 cents when traders see an 80% chance. Polling pointed to a coin flip rather than a favorite, with the latest Datafolha survey tied at 50% each among valid votes and CNT/MDA showing Bolsonaro ahead 50.5% to 49.5% in mid-October. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he does not recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul the election, after pledging in August to respect the outcome. He objected to Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting until 7 p.m. at the request of Lula’s campaign, which he said changed the rules midgame. His own campaign had separately asked for extr
Grayscale: Bitcoin's volatility is lower than that of several well-known companies.
According to a Grayscale report cited by Bijie, Bitcoin's annualized realized volatility is 43%, below its ten-year average of 64% and its level of 81% five years ago. The report notes that Bitcoin's volatility is lower than that of roughly 19% of S&P 500 stocks, a reminder that some familiar stocks have experienced larger price swings than Bitcoin.
Market news: Voting has begun in Israel's parliamentary elections, with polling stations opening at 7 a.m. local time.
CoinWorld news, market news: Voting in Israel's parliamentary election has begun, with polling stations opening at 7 a.m. local time.
Russia struck Kyiv's transport infrastructure in Ukraine and logistics hubs in the Kharkiv region.
According to a Russian news agency: The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russia struck transport infrastructure in Kyiv, Ukraine, as well as logistics hubs in the Kharkiv region.
Suzhou: GDP grew 5.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters.
According to Suzhou Release, based on the unified accounting results of the province's gross domestic product, the city's gross domestic product for the first three quarters reached 2,119.090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% at constant prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 11.485 billion yuan, up 3.5%; the value added of the secondary industry was 955.951 billion yuan, up 7.3%; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 1,151.655 billion yuan, up 4.3%.
Wallets holding at least 10 million XRP now account for 68.5% of the total, the highest level in nearly four years.
Biji Network data: Wallets holding at least 10 million XRP collectively hold approximately 46.87 billion XRP, accounting for 68.5% of the supply, the highest level since November 2022. Although XRP's price is under pressure near $1.29, large holders continue to accumulate. $1.30 is a key short-term level for XRP, and $1.50 is an important confirmation level. If the price remains above $1.20 and whale holdings stay elevated, the accumulation thesis holds. If XRP reclaims $1.50 and whale holdings continue to grow, expectations for a rebound strengthen.
BTC DVOL指数报38.36点
CoinWorld data: The BTC DVOL index's latest reading is 38.36 points.
Ukrainian drones attack Russia's Bryansk region
A local governor said that a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Bryansk region killed 1 person and injured 6 others, according to BiJie Network.
The VIX volatility index daily change is reported at -5.45%.
CoinWorld US stock data: The VIX volatility index fell 5.45% from the previous trading day. Compared with the same-caliber snapshot 7 days ago, it rose 2.304 percentage points.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $2.69 trillion.
CoinWorld data: The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.69 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $66.878 billion.