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More →Brazil’s Stock Market Crashes After Lula’s Upset Victory
Brazil’s stock market lost more than $200 billion in value at the open on Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff, a result that prediction markets had priced at roughly a one in five chance. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, a basket of Brazilian stocks that trades in New York like a single share, fell as much as 26% from Friday’s close of about $42.60, touching $31.40 before trimming the loss to about 23% at $32.84 by 10:38 a.m. ET. That is memecoin-sized volatility for a fund built around Brazil’s biggest companies, and it leaves EWZ roughly where it started 2026 after a 34% gain through Friday. The dollar rose as much as 12% against the real on Friday, while the Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell as much as 17% to about 170,000 points. For a dollar-based investor, those moves at their worst combine to a loss of about 26%, in line with the ETF’s low. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10% from Friday’s close, its first circuit breaker since the COVID-19 pandemic. A circuit breaker is an automatic pause meant to slow panic selling, but the index kept sliding after trading resumed. Investors had been positioning for the opposite result since Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The Ibovespa jumped 7.85% the next day and EWZ gained more than 10% on bets that Bolsonaro would tighten public finances and open the way to lower interest rates. Monday’s drop erased that rally and, at its lows, left the Ibovespa about 11% below its Oct. 2 close. But Lula didn’t just beat Bolsonaro, he also beat prediction markets. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an<a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2114003200017575948" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS">> 82% chance</a> of winning the day before the vote, and Kalshi had him near 80% on Sunday morning. Both platforms are<a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS" rel="nofollow"> prediction markets</a>, where a contract that pays $1 if a candidate wins trades at 80 cents when traders see an 80% chance. Polling pointed to a coin flip rather than a favorite, with the latest Datafolha survey tied at 50% each among valid votes and CNT/MDA showing Bolsonaro ahead 50.5% to 49.5% in mid-October. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he does not recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul the election, after pledging in August to respect the outcome. He objected to Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting until 7 p.m. at the request of Lula’s campaign, which he said changed the rules midgame. His own campaign had separately asked for extr
q token surged 262%, and trader 0xf1fe made a profit of $963,000 on aster_DEX.
CoinWorld data: the q token surged 262% today, and trader 0xf1fe made a profit of $963,000 on aster_DEX by going long on q.
An ancient whale transferred 3,000 ETH and $100 million in stablecoins to an exchange.
According to data from Bijie.com: within the past 24 hours, an ancient whale that participated in the early issuance in 2015 transferred 3,000 ETH to an exchange, worth approximately $6.94 million. The whale's cost basis for the ETH held is $0.31 per coin, and there are still 47,000 ETH remaining on-chain, worth approximately $109 million. In addition, last night the whale also transferred more than $100 million worth of stablecoins to multiple exchanges, market makers, and OTC institutions.
CZ: Asset tokenization aims to bring US capital markets on-chain, and its value will emerge as adoption grows.
CoinWorld news: After ringing the bell for BNB Standard at Nasdaq, CZ said in an interview with The Rollup that blockchain should be used by the financial industry. He defined asset tokenization as connecting US capital markets on-chain, aiming to make it easier for the whole world to access US assets and markets. Regarding the tokenization process, CZ believes that once the number of people holding and using tokenized stocks increases, their value will eventually be realized.
Jinshi Futures Exclusive Feature
According to CoinWorld news, at 02:00 Beijing time on October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision, and at 02:30 Chair Warsh will hold a press conference. At the September meeting, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00%; as of October 27, market pricing indicated an approximately 89.5% probability that rates would remain unchanged this time. There will be no Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot at this meeting. The key question is how the statement will weigh rising inflation against slowing hiring, and whether Warsh will leave room for another rate hike in December. A one-page summary of the key points of the October FOMC!
National Bureau of Statistics: From January to September, computing power and data center construction drove profits in the optical fiber manufacturing and optical cable manufacturing industries to grow by 5.7 times and 1.1 times, respectively.
According to a report from Bijie.com, Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to September 2026. From January to September, the profits of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 52.0% year on year, a growth rate 36.5 percentage points higher than that of all industrial enterprises above designated size. High-tech manufacturing accounted for 25.5% of the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, up 6.2 percentage points from the same period last year. From an industry perspective, the construction of computing power and data centers drove profits in the optical fiber manufacturing and optical cable manufacturing industries to increase by 5.7 times and 1.1 times, respectively; among fields related to the computer and server industrial chains, profits in computer peripheral equipment manufacturing, computer complete machine manufacturing, and industrial control computers and systems manufacturing increased by 2.8 times, 1.7 times, and 90.9%, respectively; in the field of special-purpose instrument manufacturing, profits in navigation, surveying and mapping, meteorology, and marine special-purpose instrument manufacturing and dental equipment and appliance manufacturing increased by 1.9 times and 59.6%, respectively.
National Bureau of Statistics: Profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 44.9% year-on-year from January to September.
According to a report from Bijie.com, Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January to September 2026. The data shows that from January to September, the profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 44.9% year-on-year, driving a 5.9 percentage point increase in the profits of all industrial enterprises above designated size. Strong demand for basic metal products such as copper and aluminum in fields such as artificial intelligence and new energy drove a 79.7% increase in profits in the non-ferrous metals industry. Rising international crude oil prices drove improved profitability in related industries. Among them, profits in the chemical industry increased by 49.2%, and the petroleum processing industry turned from a year-on-year loss to a profit, achieving total profits of 84.22 billion yuan.
National Bureau of Statistics: Profits in the electronics industry grew significantly from January to September.
According to CoinWorld news, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to September 2026, profits in the electronic special materials manufacturing and semiconductor discrete device manufacturing industries grew by 2.2 times and 51.7%, respectively. Overall profits in the electronics industry increased by 1.0 times year-on-year, driving a 9.6 percentage point increase in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size and serving as an important support. Driven by demand for AI computing power and advanced storage, profits in the optoelectronic device manufacturing and electronic circuit manufacturing industries grew by 69.8% and 62.5%, respectively.
VIX收报18.39点，VXN收报26.4点
CoinWorld US stock data: End-of-day data shows that on the 2026-10-26 trading day, the VIX closed at 18.39 points, and the VXN closed at 26.4 points.
Hong Kong-listed AI stocks strengthened, with Cambridge Technology rising over 6%.
According to CoinWorld news, as of press time, Hong Kong-listed AI stocks are showing strong performance: Cambridge Technology (06166.HK) is up 6.10%, Mininglamp Technology-W (02718.HK) is up 5.76%, and Zhipu (02513.HK) is up 4.06%.