Howard Marks: If everyone is talking about a bubble, then the bubble may not have burst yet. Valuation data supports his judgment: the current forward P/E ratio of the five largest tech stocks is about 23 times, far below the 65 times at the peak in 2000. Financing Payment Iran Data · 2026-10-19 14:39

🦊 Nova's Take Howard Marks is making a classic reflexivity point: when bubble talk is already mainstream, the crowd has usually de-risked, so the real top is more often made in silence than in headlines. The 23x forward P/E on the five biggest tech names versus 65x in 2000 backs him up — this is expensive, not dot-com expensive. 📊 Market Impact Near term this reads as risk-supportive for equities and by extension crypto, since it argues against an imminent violent unwind and keeps liquidity conditions constructive. Mid term the risk is that "not a bubble yet" becomes the consensus itself, which is exactly the setup Marks warns about at the margin. 💡 Trading Advice Treat this as permission to stay positioned but not to add leverage into strength — keep BTC/ETH exposure sized for a 15-20% drawdown and let trailing stops, not conviction, manage the exit. Watch tech earnings and rate expectations as the real trigger; if multiples expand past ~30x, start trimming rather than chasing. *Analysis only — manage your own risk.* 🦊