Bitcoin price analysis sees ‘strong rally’ as old coins become dormant

A decline in the share of Bitcoin’s realized cap held by coins unmoved for 18 months or longer points to the ‘early stages’ of a bull market, analysis says. Bitcoin (BTC) onchain transaction data is hinting at the start of a new uptrend as long-term holders retreat from selling. Data from onchain analytics platform >CryptoQuant shows that investors holding coins for 18 months or longer are starting to become less active. On Sept. 16, the 18-month-plus cohort’s share of realized cap — the value of all coins at the price they last moved onchain — hit 26.98%, its highest since mid-November 2024. Analyzing the data, CryptoQuant sees a historical trend that preceded Bitcoin bull markets now repeating. “The pattern has always been the same: when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows,” it wrote in a >blog post. It included a chart of UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age bands, sized according to their contribution to the realized cap. Bitcoin realized cap by UTXO age. Source: CryptoQuant
Reduced onchain spending by long-term investors reflects a move to maintain BTC exposure to increase profitability in the long term. The contribution by these investors remained in a broad uptrend beginning in November 2025, with profit-taking activity rising as BTC/USD fell further from its current all-time high of $126,200. CryptoQuant noted that the UTXO trend reversal remains modest, implying that the market is witnessing only the very start of more bullish conditions. “The market has now shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle, where such a signal has not even begun yet,” it commented. “This looks like a point where we can remain positive about both the potential upside and the duration of the rally.” Among long-term holders, only the 18-month-to-two-year cohort is currently in net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193. Its cost basis currently sits at $93,193. Related: BTC price risks $80K loss into FOMC, earnings: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week Since its 2025 all-time highs, Bitcoin has fallen below this cohort’s cost basis, while older cohorts have remained in aggregate profit. The year 2026 thus marks the first bear market in which price has stayed above the 2-3-year cohort’s cost basis, CryptoQuant shows