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More →Brazil’s Stock Market Crashes After Lula’s Upset Victory
Brazil’s stock market lost more than $200 billion in value at the open on Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff, a result that prediction markets had priced at roughly a one in five chance. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, a basket of Brazilian stocks that trades in New York like a single share, fell as much as 26% from Friday’s close of about $42.60, touching $31.40 before trimming the loss to about 23% at $32.84 by 10:38 a.m. ET. That is memecoin-sized volatility for a fund built around Brazil’s biggest companies, and it leaves EWZ roughly where it started 2026 after a 34% gain through Friday. The dollar rose as much as 12% against the real on Friday, while the Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell as much as 17% to about 170,000 points. For a dollar-based investor, those moves at their worst combine to a loss of about 26%, in line with the ETF’s low. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10% from Friday’s close, its first circuit breaker since the COVID-19 pandemic. A circuit breaker is an automatic pause meant to slow panic selling, but the index kept sliding after trading resumed. Investors had been positioning for the opposite result since Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The Ibovespa jumped 7.85% the next day and EWZ gained more than 10% on bets that Bolsonaro would tighten public finances and open the way to lower interest rates. Monday’s drop erased that rally and, at its lows, left the Ibovespa about 11% below its Oct. 2 close. But Lula didn’t just beat Bolsonaro, he also beat prediction markets. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an<a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2114003200017575948" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS">> 82% chance</a> of winning the day before the vote, and Kalshi had him near 80% on Sunday morning. Both platforms are<a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS" rel="nofollow"> prediction markets</a>, where a contract that pays $1 if a candidate wins trades at 80 cents when traders see an 80% chance. Polling pointed to a coin flip rather than a favorite, with the latest Datafolha survey tied at 50% each among valid votes and CNT/MDA showing Bolsonaro ahead 50.5% to 49.5% in mid-October. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he does not recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul the election, after pledging in August to respect the outcome. He objected to Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting until 7 p.m. at the request of Lula’s campaign, which he said changed the rules midgame. His own campaign had separately asked for extr
Citadel Securities: The scale of AI trading is astonishing, leaving the market almost no room for error.
According to a report by Bijie, Caixin reported on October 27 that Citadel Securities believes the market has poured so much into the AI trade that there is almost no room for error if the massive spending fails to generate returns. Nohshad Shah, the firm's head of fixed income sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, noted in a research report that the selloff in tech stocks shows investors are becoming increasingly demanding about whether massive AI spending will ultimately generate sufficient profits. "With so much of the economy and stock market now riding on the AI trade, and other risks potentially emerging, the market has almost no margin for error," he said.
Elvis Presley's music rights holders sue Anthropic
Elvis Presley's music rights holders are suing Anthropic, alleging that the company used 274 Presley songs to train its AI models without permission, according to The Guardian. Lawyers for the rights holders accuse Anthropic of building its business model on an unprecedented scale of copyright infringement. Anthropic also faces lawsuits from music publishers including Sony, Universal, and Warner.
BTC liquidations totaled $40.7513 million over the past 24 hours.
CoinWorld data: BTC liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled approximately $40.7513 million, with 3,205 liquidation orders recorded. Compared with the same-caliber snapshot 24 hours ago, this is up 247.17%; compared with the same-caliber snapshot 7 days ago, it is down 38.89%.
BTC large holder account long-short ratio is 2.2765
CoinWorld data: The latest 4-hour snapshot for BTCUSDT shows that among the top 20% of accounts by margin balance, the long-short account ratio is 2.2765, with more net long accounts among large holders. Compared with the same-metric snapshot 24 hours ago, it is up 0.001; compared with the same-metric snapshot 7 days ago, it is up 0.6205.
Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello: Wall Street hit by its largest-scale selloff
Coin World news, Goldman Sachs Group's Tony Pasquariello said Wall Street has suffered its largest sell-off since July, with hedge funds selling tech stocks last Thursday at the fastest pace in two years, seriously calling into question the market's conviction in this trade. In a note to clients, Pasquariello pointed out that although the S&P 500 has been range-bound over the past three months, as the AI trade gives back gains, the surface calm has masked a "persistent drawdown in performance" since the end of June. He noted that for several weeks, hedge funds have been cutting net and gross equity exposure, and said, "Have we seen capitulation selling? While it's impossible to judge precisely, based on what I'm hearing from various parts of my business network and from conversations with clients, it feels like the market has indeed been badly wounded." The Nasdaq 100 index plunged 2.9% that day, and tech stocks rebounded on Monday, with the index rising 1%. In his October 23 report, Pasquariello said the pressure driving the sell-off came partly from positioning and fundamentals; after a strong first half, investors had built heavily long positions in the AI theme, but since then the market has "dealt a heavy blow to consensus positioning."
S&P Global Ratings said that despite SpaceX completing debt financing for GPU procurement, its credit rating remains unchanged.
CoinWorld news, Cailian Press, October 27: S&P Global Ratings said that although SpaceX has completed debt financing for the procurement of GPUs, its credit rating remains unchanged.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency calls on community banks to enter the stablecoin market.
According to CoinWorld news, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is calling on U.S. community banks to enter the stablecoin market and encouraging them to apply to become licensed issuers under the GENIUS Act before the regulatory deadline of January 18, 2027.
Microsoft launches voluntary severance program covering 60,000 employees
CoinWorld news: Microsoft has announced a voluntary departure program, with an estimated 60,000 employees expected to participate, a move driven by artificial intelligence reshaping its workforce structure. The program covers 27% of Microsoft's approximately 223,000 employees in the United States, Canada, India, and the United Kingdom. The program has been extended to employees at the vice president level and below. The move comes as Microsoft invests billions of dollars in AI infrastructure and promotes the use of AI tools across teams including engineering and sales to improve efficiency.
Report: Iranian officials say they are ready and waiting for Israel to act.
According to Iran's Fars News, an Iranian security official said that the whole world is watching in shock as Netanyahu publicly reveals his true intentions, even making the destruction of Iran a campaign slogan. Iran will certainly respond to any threat with equal force. Iran is fully prepared, and once it is subjected to even the slightest attack, it will respond in kind with unprecedented speed and force. The official also warned Israeli residents to prepare for a possible conflict.